The UK Government has come under some critical scrutiny in the face of a response to the advance of coronavirus that has differed significantly from the consensus emerging from policy being implemented across many countries.
Robert Peston, writing on the ITV website, draws attention to the what he calls “ …the most important thing they [the UK Government] don’t know….. the proportion of people who will get the virus but will show no symptoms.”
That is what Donald Rumsfeld might have called “a known unknown” and it is clearly a data set which has important relevance to the rate of spread of COVID-19 and to the task of developing the best strategy for its containment. I seem to remember Rumsfeld, Secretary of State for Defence under George W. Bush, being widely derided for the statement he made containing this phrase: but it certainly makes sense in this context.
View over Glenkiln reservoir, Dumfries and Galloway, where the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 17th March 2020 Current cases in Scotland. [Latest numbers published at 2pm GMT each day.]
More testing, would seem the obvious way to throw light on what is happening and Tobias Ellwood MP on Politics Live today was adamant that the Government is performing well in this respect, relative to other countries. However, if this testing is focussed on those with declared symptoms, then the asymptomatic cases, to which Robert Peston refers, will not become part of the picture.
At this stage however, meaningful randomised testing of the population would be a huge operation, and therefore may not seem realistic or a priority.
South Korea have done a great deal of testing and have low mortality amongst those infected — about 0.6% — but this is probably due to the fact that they have a younger age profile in their population, whilst Italy, by comparison has experienced relatively high mortality — more like 6% — and has a strikingly different age profile:
According to a UN report in 2015, 28.6% of the Italian population was 60 years old or older (second in the world after Japan at 33%). This compares to South Korea, where 18.5% of the population is at least 60
My conclusion is simple, and I regret to say, not terribly enlightening: predicting the spread of the virus and optimising our response to it, is complicated; we could doubtless add Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” to the aforementioned “known unknowns” to create an inscrutable picture which will in any case almost certainly vary country by country.
At some time in the future there will doubtless be a reckoning as regards who called it right and who called it wrong. In the meantime I would point you in the direction of the UK Government Guidance on social distancing for everyone in the UK and protecting older people and vulnerable adults which offers sound advice on how we should alter our behaviour. The summary table at the conclusion is I think particularly helpful and I reproduce it here. I suspect the guidance could be of interest even to those few international travellers who come knocking at the door of this blog.
If you are having difficulty reading the table, try CTRL+
And for those with additional appetite for this type of thing, the Guardian article by Petra Klepac, assistant professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, What we scientists have discovered about how each age group spreads Covid-19 is well worth a look. In summary: “For some, workplaces are hotspots. For the over-65s, it’s shops and restaurants. We urgently need to change our behaviour“
I am a retired College lecturer, having worked originally in supported programmes but latterly having taught social science subjects, Psychology and Politics, though my degree was in Sociology. I am from Newry in Northern Ireland, but now live in Dumfries in South West Scotland. https://carruchan.wordpress.com/about/
Carruchan
Known Unknowns, Unknown Unknowns and the Importance of Social Distancing
The UK Government has come under some critical scrutiny in the face of a response to the advance of coronavirus that has differed significantly from the consensus emerging from policy being implemented across many countries.
Robert Peston, writing on the ITV website, draws attention to the what he calls “ …the most important thing they [the UK Government] don’t know….. the proportion of people who will get the virus but will show no symptoms.”
That is what Donald Rumsfeld might have called “a known unknown” and it is clearly a data set which has important relevance to the rate of spread of COVID-19 and to the task of developing the best strategy for its containment. I seem to remember Rumsfeld, Secretary of State for Defence under George W. Bush, being widely derided for the statement he made containing this phrase: but it certainly makes sense in this context.
where the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed
on 17th March 2020 Current cases in Scotland.
[Latest numbers published at 2pm GMT each day.]
More testing, would seem the obvious way to throw light on what is happening and Tobias Ellwood MP on Politics Live today was adamant that the Government is performing well in this respect, relative to other countries. However, if this testing is focussed on those with declared symptoms, then the asymptomatic cases, to which Robert Peston refers, will not become part of the picture.
At this stage however, meaningful randomised testing of the population would be a huge operation, and therefore may not seem realistic or a priority.
South Korea have done a great deal of testing and have low mortality amongst those infected — about 0.6% — but this is probably due to the fact that they have a younger age profile in their population, whilst Italy, by comparison has experienced relatively high mortality — more like 6% — and has a strikingly different age profile:
My conclusion is simple, and I regret to say, not terribly enlightening: predicting the spread of the virus and optimising our response to it, is complicated; we could doubtless add Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” to the aforementioned “known unknowns” to create an inscrutable picture which will in any case almost certainly vary country by country.
At some time in the future there will doubtless be a reckoning as regards who called it right and who called it wrong. In the meantime I would point you in the direction of the UK Government Guidance on social distancing for everyone in the UK and protecting older people and vulnerable adults which offers sound advice on how we should alter our behaviour. The summary table at the conclusion is I think particularly helpful and I reproduce it here. I suspect the guidance could be of interest even to those few international travellers who come knocking at the door of this blog.
And for those with additional appetite for this type of thing, the Guardian article by Petra Klepac, assistant professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, What we scientists have discovered about how each age group spreads Covid-19 is well worth a look. In summary: “For some, workplaces are hotspots. For the over-65s, it’s shops and restaurants. We urgently need to change our behaviour“
Sources
The most important fact about coronavirus that the government does not know
Politics Live 17th March 2020
Why South Korea has so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many
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About Stephen Shellard
I am a retired College lecturer, having worked originally in supported programmes but latterly having taught social science subjects, Psychology and Politics, though my degree was in Sociology. I am from Newry in Northern Ireland, but now live in Dumfries in South West Scotland. https://carruchan.wordpress.com/about/